Should You Lay Up or Go for the Green?

The short answer: go for the green only when your realistic miss is still safe. Decide using your lie, the carry you need compared with the carry you hit on an average swing, and what the trouble around the green costs you. If the hero shot brings water, out of bounds or a lost ball into play, take a club you can hit almost every time, like a 7-iron, and put the ball where your next shot is easy.

Plan for your miss, not your best shot

Most bad decisions on the course come from planning around the best shot you have ever hit with that club. But you don't hit your best shot most of the time. Nobody does.

Every club has a dispersion pattern, a spread of where your shots finish. The longer the club, the wider that spread. Filming a strategy lesson on a par 5, I hit a lay-up anyone watching would have called a great shot. It finished about 20 metres right of where I was aiming, and I was trying. That is golf. Your job is to choose a club and a target where even your worst reasonable miss is still fine.

The par 5 trap

Here is the situation I see every week. A good drive on a par 5 leaves 230 or 240 metres to the green. There is trouble left, trouble right, and a bunker or a dip short of the green.

The golfer pulls out the 3-wood and tries to pump it. If it comes off, they are still chipping. If it doesn't, the ball is in the trees or lost, and a par 5 they could have bogeyed at worst becomes a double.

Then comes the second mistake. They decide to be sensible, put the 3-wood back and take a hybrid. But a hybrid still goes high and long, and its miss still reaches the trees. That isn't a lay-up. It is a slightly shorter version of the same risk.

A real lay-up is a club you can hit almost every time. On that hole, a 7-iron over the dip leaving 100 metres in is a shot most golfers can play nine times out of ten. Placing the ball between the bunkers with a 7-iron is a strategy. Pumping a 3-wood is a hope.

Think about trajectory too. The longer the club and the higher the flight, the more time the wind has to push the ball sideways. In a crosswind, a lower, shorter shot keeps your dispersion tight.

Distance isn't the enemy, trouble is

This is where many golfers get the lesson wrong. Laying up doesn't mean you should always leave yourself a full wedge.

Mark Broadie's strokes gained research on tour data found that, on average, the closer you are to the hole the fewer strokes it takes to finish, even inside wedge range. Laying back to a favourite full-wedge distance doesn't beat simply being closer when there is no extra trouble. So if the hole is wide open, advance the ball as far as you comfortably can.

What should make you lay up is trouble that costs shots: a penalty area, out of bounds, thick trees, or a bunker you can't get out of. Your favourite distance is a tie-breaker, not the plan.

My five-question framework

Run through this behind the ball before every go or lay-up decision.

1. What is the lie? A ball sitting down in rough, a tight lie or a sloping stance all shrink what you can do. Take a practice swing. If the grass grabs the club and twists the face, a fairway wood is off the table.
2. What carry do I need, and what do I actually carry? Use carry distance, not total distance, and use your average strike, not your best. If you need your best shot to clear the hazard, the answer is no.
3. What does the trouble cost? A ball in a penalty area usually costs one stroke plus a harder next shot. Out of bounds or a lost ball costs stroke and distance. A greenside bunker costs no penalty, but it may cost you a shot. Find the worst place on the hole and move your whole pattern away from it, even if that brings a milder problem into play.
4. Where does the lay-up leave me? Look for a flat lie, a wide part of the fairway and a good angle into the pin. If there is no trouble, get as close as you safely can.
5. What is my likely score each way? Be honest. Say going for it would find the green two times in ten, the bunker four and the water four. Laying up finds the fairway nine times in ten with a wedge in. Add up the likely scores and the decision usually makes itself.

Then apply my 7 out of 10 rule: if you can't pull the shot off at least 7 times out of 10, it isn't the right shot.

Decide, then commit

Make the decision behind the ball, take your practice swing and commit. The worst outcome is a golfer who chooses to lay up, then tries to squeeze extra distance out of the 7-iron, or one who goes for it and bails out halfway through the swing. A committed lay-up beats a nervous hero shot every time.

Drill: Two-Ball Strategy Nine

Use this in a casual practice round when the course is quiet.

1. On every hole where you face a go or lay-up decision, play two balls.
2. Ball one goes for the green. Ball two lays up using the five questions.
3. Play both out and record a score for each.
4. After nine holes, compare the totals.

Many golfers find the lay-up ball wins by more than they expected, and they learn exactly which holes they really can attack.

Bonus test: on a launch monitor, hit 20 balls with your 7-iron and 20 with your 3-wood. Note how wide each spread is from left to right. Seeing it in numbers changes how you look at narrow holes.

Common mistakes I see

• Planning around your best shot instead of your average one
• Swapping a 3-wood for a hybrid and calling it a lay-up
• Ignoring the lie and taking a fairway wood out of rough
• Laying up to an awkward spot with a bad angle or a sloping lie
• Forgetting the wind's effect on high, long shots
• Deciding, then changing your mind over the ball

Want to think your way to lower scores?

My Game Development Playbook includes the strategy, stats tracking and practice plan I use with my students to cut out big numbers. Smart decisions like these are one of the fastest ways to break 90. Start at perform.golf.

Kerrod Gray is a PGA of Australia Professional, Advanced in Coaching, and the founder of Perform Golf.